Ian's 2004 Baseball Predictions

sI do this every year, and I promise this was done before today's games, not that 1 of 162 would convince me to change my standings order. Anyway, here's the AL standings predictions, followed by some analysis:

Things are a bit different in the American League. I really think Boston will take the division from the Yankees this year. The other big surprise (or letdown) in the AL East is Baltimore. Sure they signed Javy Lopez and Miguel Tejada, but they aren't a good all-around team like Boston, New York, or Toronto is starting to become. It's too bad for Tampa Bay, because I think they could legitimately compete in the Comedy Central.

In the Comedy Central, I think KC will win the wild card now that they've shown they can compete down to the wire. Minnesota is better, but the two teams will benefit from the division schedule and beat up on the bottom feeders.

In the West, it's another 3 team race. Anaheim improved the most, and if all the pieces fall together this year, they'll beat a slightly worse Oakland team. Seattle is too old to go all the way, and Texas...well..you know.

In the National League, things may be a little different than last year. In the East, Atlanta will probably not make the playoffs for the first time since 1991. They lost a lot of key players and Philly and Florida are too much improved to fall behind the weakened Braves. Philly will win the division: they went out and improved on all their weaknesses from '03.

In the Central, it's now or never for the Astros. They added Clemens and Pettitte, and Kent, Bagwell, and Biggio aren't getting any younger either. They'll outlast the Cubs, but the Cubs will win the wild card as both teams wreak havoc on the weak Central. Milwaukee may be the surprise team after getting some key players from Arizona in the Sexson trade.

The West will be a 4, maybe 5 team race down to September. Once again, L.A. will flirt with first place, probably in early August when it matters least, and then fail with 5 games to go. I think the top 4 teams will be separated by less than 5 games. Arizona is the deepest, San Diego is much improved, LA has a great staff not much more, and San Fran needs to protect Bonds if they want him to be effective.

So those are my standings predictions. In the playoffs, I think Philadelphia will meet Boston in the World Series, with the Philadelphia Phillies taking the title in 7 games. That's right, Matt Looloian, the Phils are headed to the Series.

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